indicators

The US won’t officially be in recession if GDP shrinks again — and here’s why

Since 1948 the US economy has never shrunk for two quarters in a row without a recession being declared, but an exception to the rule could happen soon. Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, is on track to contract in the recently ended second quarter. GDP also declined at a 1.6% annual …

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Are markets underestimating how far the Fed must go to tame inflation?

The Federal Reserve isn’t even four months into its latest interest-rate-hiking cycle, and yet investors are already pricing in rate cuts as soon as next year, the latest sign that the market is bracing — or perhaps rather hoping — for a swift return to the easy-money monetary policy that helped drive the roaring stock …

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Here’s how far house prices are set to fall as rates go up, according to this forecasting firm

Stocks are veering south post holiday, following earlier optimism over reports President Joe Biden may lower tariffs on some Chinese goods to help ease the inflation sting. There isn’t much to explain the moodiness of stocks, which logged gains on Friday, but weekly losses on worries about a recession spurred on by rising US interest …

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I’m the director of forecasting for the National Association of Realtors. Here are 6 things you should know about the housing market now

As part of our series where we ask prominent economists and real estate pros their take on the housing market now, we talked to Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting at the National Association of Realtors. National Association of Realtors The housing affordability crunch is here — with mortgage rates continuing to rise …

I’m the director of forecasting for the National Association of Realtors. Here are 6 things you should know about the housing market now Read More »

At Least 7 Major Economies Will Hit Recession in Next 12 Months, Nomura Says

Text size The Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell will err on the side of more rate hikes for now, but will have to cut rates starting next year, Nomura says. Barron’s Advisor; Getty Images; Dreamtime Six major to falling will join the US in recession in the coming year, according to new research by Nomura . …

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With prices skirting a 17-month low, Dr Copper’s prognosis about the global economy is downbeat

Dr Copper has graded the global economy, and noted: “must do better.” The red metal is wryly considered by commodity watchers to hold a Ph.D in economics, because its use in a range of sectors, including home appliances, power generation and cars, helps it predict the trajectory of global growth. So, copper’s price initial drop …

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June Jobs Data, FOMC Minutes, Levi’s Earnings, and More for Investors to Watch This Week

Text size Uncredited The stock market will be closed on Monday for Independence Day. It will be a light week on the earnings calendar once investors return, but with plenty of notable economic releases to process. The highlight will be the June jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. On average, economists …

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Stocks Had a Nasty 6 Months. The Second Half Could Be Ugly Too.

Text size Bond markets are pricing in significant additional interest-rate hikes this year, but some stock analysts’ earnings forecasts remain optimism. Michael Nagle/Bloomberg It was a first half destined to haunt investors. The past six months were historically bad for stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and practically every other asset class outside of commodities. Despite its late …

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Prices of Oil, Wheat, and Copper are Falling. What It Means.

Elias Stein Text size Interpreting commodity prices is a challenge. Prices of commodities like oil, wheat, and copper are sliding as recession concerns grow. In theory, a weaker economy reduces demand. Construction slows—copper is used in wiring and plumbing—as do sales of anything electrical. Experts differ on what this means. “Fears of a global recession …

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The Latest Inflation Data Is (Mildly) Good News for the Fed

Fed chief Jerome Powell, shown testifying before a House panel last week, may not have to raise rates as aggressively at coming meetings as some inflation data are showing signs of peaking. Win McNamee/Getty Images Text size Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave two clear reasons why the central bank raised interest rates by 0.75 …

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